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SI1217INDUSTRY WATCH Closing A Challenging Year, Launching A Successful 2018 By Russ Thurman Closing the books on the 2017 business year comes as a tremendous relief for many in the industry. Overall, the year hasn’t been pretty. It began with a downturn in sales; actually, the drop started in December 2016. The “Trump Slump” had begun. Overall, ﬁrearm and ammunition sales have seen the most impact. Sales likely will end the year 20 percent down compared to 2016, perhaps more. While the ﬁnal data is not available at this writing, the number of ﬁrearm NICS background checks conducted during the year likely will drop 9 to 10 percent (NSSF-adjusted) compared to 2016. However, the decrease may be more severe. The NICS data includes background checks for used ﬁrearms, which can create a false impression regarding overall ﬁrearm sales. This is especially important, since dealers report a notable increase in the sale of used ﬁrearms. That’s welcome news for retailers, but it doesn’t help relieve the backlog of new inventory in the supply chain. The slowdown has also hurt companies that increased their manufacturing capacities. The lack of major orders has resulted in layoffs. On the anti-gun front, the movement is making advances in several states, including ongoing efforts to ban certain ﬁrearms and restrict ammunition sales, with additional threats to hunting, ranges and more restrictions on gun owners. The insane shooting in Las Vegas derailed the Hearing Protecting Act on Capitol Hill. The act would have signiﬁcantly increased the sale of suppressors. Numerous manufacturers are now burdened with signiﬁcant suppressor inventory. Positive Signs It’s not all negative. Slowly, there have been signs of a recovery. In addition, many product segments in the industry have not experienced a downturn. A notable number of companies report their sales will exceed record-setting 2016. Dealers for the most part report solid sales, with little drop from last year, and ranges continue business at a nice, if not brisk, pace. Even in this down year, new gunshops and ranges have opened for business. There also continues to be an expansion of the consumer base, with a refreshing increase in younger gun owners, who are not overly inﬂuenced by anti-gun messaging. ARMED WITH PLENTY OF BATTLE SCARS AND LESSONS LEARNED, IT’S TIME FOR THE INDUSTRY TO CLOSE OUT THE YEAR WITH A STRONG, ENTHUSIASTIC FOCUS ON 2018. While there have been layoffs, large and small companies are still hiring new people, many of them in sales and marketing, with a notable emphasis on those with expertise in social media. On the political front, there is also positive news. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke overturned the Obama Administration’s ban of lead ammunition and fishing tackle, and throughout the year he signed proposals and orders that support and expand hunting and other outdoor opportunities. In August, Zinke signed a proclamation declaring August National Shooting Sports Month — a direct endorsement of NSSF’s National Shooting Sports Month. In May, U.S. Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) began a major effort to urge the State and Commerce Departments to complete Export Control Reforms for the ﬁrearms and ammunition industry. This would be a major boost to U.S. manufacturers competing for international contracts. Mid-September, U.S. Rep. Steve Russell (R-Okla.) introduced the Federal Firearms Licensee Protection Act of 2017. The act will strengthen the criminal penalties for thefts of ﬁrearms from retailers and impose mandatory minimum sentences. Sweat Equity, Backbone No, this has not been a year for the faint of heart. It’s been challenging. Armed with plenty of battle scars and lessons learned, it’s time for the industry to close out the year with a strong, enthusiastic focus on 2018. Such increased attention was palpable at the NASGW Expo and Annual Meeting in San Antonio in October. The event is about serious business: manufacturers rolling out new offerings and distributors purchasing the products they believe will quickly move through the supply chain. It’s a time of dealmaking, which always brings big business. However, there was a higher level of intensity at NASGW this year. Manufacturers, distributors and importers are not in panic mode, but are strongly focusing on new products and programs that will ignite a strong recovery, or at the least, a moderate one. That’s encouraging. The 2018 business year is going to be a better year for the industry. Yes, there will be challenges, many of them. Success will require a healthy investment of sweat equity, “real” and “exciting” new products and keen awareness of how to motivate the consumer market, all mixed with unwavering resiliency. And, mostly, backbone. 72 DECEMBER 2017 Subscribe to SI DIGITAL www.shootingindustry.comPage 71Page 73

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